Open Thread 214

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This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:

1: Crypto exchange FTX announces the launch of the Future Fund (blog announcement, Twitter thread), a philanthropic organization run by various great people who I trust. They hope to spend $100 million - $1 billion per year on cause areas that improve the long-term future, including AI alignment, biosecurity, climate, nuclear war, education, prediction markets, and many more. What this means for you:

• If you have a project that needs funding in one of those areas, apply to them.

• They’re experimenting with “regranting”, ie if you’re a knowledgeable person who expects to be able to find and assess projects that they would miss, you can apply for a discretionary budget (“in the $250K - few million range”) and they’ll let you give it out. See their regranting page for more.

• If you have an idea for a project they should try to figure out a way to create and fund, enter their Project Ideas Competition, and win $5000 if it’s good enough to add to their list of such projects. Warning: this contest closes tomorrow (Monday)!

2: Related: the Open Philanthropy Project’s long-termist effective altruist movement-building team is hiring. They work to direct donations, spread the word about effective altruism, and make the movement more capable. Pay is low six-figures, living in SF is recommended but not absolutely required. See here for more info.

3: On my previous post, Ukraine Warcasting, I asked people for the names of anyone who had successfully predicted both the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the strong Ukrainian resistance, and said I’d signal-boost them if they existed. Someone brought up a Hungarian YouTuber named Adam Something, who I am dutifully signal-boosting. Another commenter pointed out that Anatoly Karlin was wrong before he was right. Many such cases!