Open Thread 211
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
1: The team behind Polymarket want me to clarify that despite the tone of my post about them they do still exist, they’re open for real-market trading outside the US, and they might have some kind of compliant US product in the future. I apologize for inadvertently implying they were dead.
2: And the team behind Manifold Markets (ACX grant recipient) want me to announce that they’re officially open!
This has been kind of surreal for me, because I haven’t seen much about them in the usual prediction market news, but lots of friends from outside the forecasting space have gotten involved. A writing circle I know are betting with each other about who will finish their stories when. A housemate opened a market into whether she’ll get pregnant, and another housemate who helps with childcare is buying shares “as a hedge”. I’m feeling pretty good about my claim last week that easy market creation would open up hitherto unexplored territories.
3: Related: ACX Grants recipient Nuno Sempere somehow got grant money of his own and is giving out $10K in prediction market related microgrants. Apply here if interested.
4: A message from Sam and Eric, who are running the prediction contest which incidentally this is your last day to enter:
"We have some plans to compare (aggregates of) ACX reader predictions against various prediction markets. But there are probably much cooler things we can do which we haven't thought of yet! If you run a prediction market and have an idea for an interesting collaboration that involves sharing our data before it's publicly released, get in touch with us through the contest feedback form. If you don't run a prediction market but still have an idea for something interesting we can do with the contest data, also feel free to suggest it in the feedback form, but we probably won't share the contest data with you."