Open Thread 181

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This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:

1: Thanks to everyone who participated in the Reader Survey - and if you didn’t, check it out here. One correction - several people couldn’t access survey 21, the one on optical illusions. This was my fault. It should be fixed now, so if you were affected, you can take it here. Warning: it is very long.

2: Some good comments on the most recent prediction market post (also some less good ones - before you hit “post”, see if you’ve accidentally proven the stock market can’t exist). See eg Shaked running some of the numbers and finding it might work for a few very important people/issues, but maybe not for smaller things. Also, apparently Byrne Hobart had a similar (though less crazy) idea two years ago; I regret unintentionally copying him without credit.

3: “Comment” (or whatever) of the week is this post from the subreddit: I Believe We May Be At Another Point Like March 2020 With COVID. I haven’t looked into this as much as I want to, but the little I know about Delta is really concerning.

4: Future Perfect - Vox’s journalism team covering effective altruism, existential risk, and related topics - is hiring (for remote work). You would get to work with my friend and housemate Kelsey Piper, along with a bunch of other people who I am assured are also great. Read more and apply here.