Current known concerns about Substack comments (if you have more concerns, please post them as replies to this comment, one concern per reply; if you agree with someone else's concern, heart the comment):
1. Need to press "load more comments" to load more comments and "1 more reply" to see reply
2. Hearts need to be removed. SSC commentariat previously voted that likes/upvotes distort commenting behavior too much and they don't want them.
2a. People are concerned that you can't subscribe to comment replies without getting an email every time someone hearts it, but removing hearts should solve this.
3. Cannot currently edit comments.
4. Cannot currently report comments.
5. Cannot currently see which comments are new since last visit (as in old SSC where new comments would have a green square around them).
6. Cannot currently comment without it reloading the page, no easy way to get back to your old location.
7. Cannot currently without getting popup telling you to subscribe
8. Cannot currently link to some comments (link just goes to top of page)
I've been getting into photography lately and I like sidequests so if anyone wants a high resolution, debatably high quality photo of anything within a reasonable radius of Madison, Wisconsin, @ me with your request.
If your situation gets any more odd, it might turn out that there is an enormous demand for you to refer prospective patients and psychiatrists to each other, and that this takes up so much time and is so lucrative, that it shifts the entire business model of your practice. What a world.
I read the Cult of Smart a month or so ago. I know a lot of people here have read it too. Overall I wasn't impressed with the conclusions of the book. But I can't get over the premise: intelligence is mostly inherited and school won't likely increase your IQ.
That model of the world -- where a significant amount of your intelligence comes from your parents; and there is a meritocracy; and there is some sort of self-sorting -- is a different model than the world I am used to. It really makes a lot of policies obsolete.
It kinda scares me to think about how we could govern in that world. All the same, if that is reality, I'm not sure it makes sense to ignore it.
I would like to contribute, but feel that the current subscription price is a bit higher than my willingness to pay. I would gladly pay the discounted price, but definitely do not qualify for it. Is there some other way to contribute? (I understand it's a trade-off - if you make it easier for people like me to contribute, you may get less from people who would otherwise contribute the full amount under the current setup).
It’s been a disappointing winter. I’ve been looking forward to some solid sheets of snow but mostly we’ve been met with sparse paddings of sludge and ice. I’m hoping for one last good snowfall before things get warm again, or for the snow to be done completely as the dreary grey and green isn’t doing it for me.
Minor heads up: by default, gmail was filtering the Astral Codex Ten substack emails under promotions. I found out by accident - I'm not sure if any keyword accidentally triggered it.
Is your characterization of your column and apology as "badly" and "bad job" intended to mean that you believe it was possible to do those things in a way that did not produce the negative responses that you go? I often encounter that sort of thinking in places I am relatively certain it is not accurate, but I can't tell in the context of this post. Saying/thinking these things when there was no less-bad approach available leads to faulty conclusions, in my experience.
This is of course a matter of taste, but I generally preferred the aesthetic of the previous blog. I don't know how much control you have with Substack, but experimenting with different fonts and formatting options might be worthwhile.
Hopefully this does not breach the 'no-politics' nature of this thread but... Has anyone read "Cynical Theories: How Activist Scholarship Made Evyerhting about Race, Gender, and Identity..."? Does anyone have any opinions on how it treats the subject of Postmodernism? Does it get at the crux of it? I am only a few chapters in, but I am recalling that Jordan Peterson was rightly pilloried for his lack of nuance in understanding Postmodernism. These authors, however, seem to have done their homework. So far, it's an excellent, balanced book.
So what should we call this blog? Obvious candidates that I've seen around are ACX and ACT. I strongly prefer ACX for some reason. Or will folks just stick with SSC?
1) Has anyone else had issues with the RSS feed? I didn't get a notification for this post despite subscribing.
2) There's a lot of talk over which cities are most livable by various metrics - housing supply, jobs, transit/pedestrian friendliness. I'm curious about anecdotal subjective experience - people who have lived in multiple cities, which one was your favourite overall? (And I mean including every factor - e.g. "NYC was dirty and badly run but I liked it overall because I had an interesting highly-paid job" should still count, since job market is somewhat location-dependant).
With the new blog having just launched there are probably a lot of new and returning readers and commenters that just want to say hi or introduce themselves. I’ll start.
I found SSC a bit over two years ago and binged the archives like mad. I had come across overcoming bias back in 2009 and read those archives up to that point but didn’t really stick around or engage with the community. I just lurked on Scott’s blog as well, but I have really missed it since it has been down and now that it is back I want to engage more; So Hello everyone!
I will avoid mentioning who I work for to preserve anonymity, but I am an aerospace engineer specializing in rocket propulsion and will be happy to comment on or answer questions regarding rocketry technology or space exploration. Other intellectual interests include history, and psychology especially as it relates to leadership and management.
Matt Levine’s posts have made me want to invest in a SPAC upfront (i.e. for $10 with the warrant). Is this one of those things where you have to be a VHNWI and have a relationship with a bank?
Glad that the blog is back! I'm gonna make immediate use of it by asking this: I'm starting a PhD in Psychology in the Netherlands. My PhD friends have told me Twitter is essential for keeping up with relevant publications, events, trends and development and that I should absolutely make an account.
A) What does everyone think about this assessment and B) if I do make a Twitter account, what are good ways to filter out all of the bullshit?
Irrelevant suggestion - bring back the punny titles for open threads. They brought some levity and variety and I don't think the stated reason for getting rid of them (too confusing for newbies) ever made that much sense.
I'm not just saying this because you never got around to Openguin Thread... okay I kinda am.
Health question: this last year, unexplained and unplanned I've lost about 30 pounds of weight, and about five inches off my waist and I now have to use suspenders to hold my pants up,
Has this happened to anyone else?
Unfortunately in this time of covid-19 speaking to a physician or nurse practitioner is really hard, I called for six months with lung symptoms before finally being seen, an x-ray and my weight loss prompted my doctor to say "80% lung cancer", but a biopsy found a fungal infection instead. I'm guessing at least a year until pre-2020 style medical care is available again, weight loss remains a mystery.
* There was even at the time a lot of government and institutional support for prominent charter networks
* Closer investigation into what's going on in those schools should have made it clearer that they were focused on test prep in a way that wouldn't lead to sustainable long-term benefits (KIPP has had a hard time showing increased college enrollment and graduation, though I think after changing to focus on that they now have a modest impact on that)
* Research was very limited at the time on impact of no excuses charters
I'm having a hard time separating disturbing things I've heard from people who have done stints at KIPP (and Success Academy etc) from what was understood in 2011. I think this should be seen as a failure of Effective Altruism/Givewell but I'm interested in defenses.
Was KIPP really the best place to give money in the US in 2011?
Scott's difficulties setting up his psychiatry practice remind me of Paul Morphy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Morphy) who, after becoming widely recognized as the world chess champion at 21, retired from competitive play to open a law practice. His law practice failed because everyone who came to him just wanted to talk about chess. Scott, the widely recognized world blogging champion, may be facing a similar predicament.
Now that my living room no longer looks like I've been fighting Terminators, I am happy to report that I have found a practical use for RGB lighting! To my utter shock, my new PC rig booted on the first try, but one of my memory modules didn't light up. What do you know, Windows is only detecting one module. Fortunately, it just needed to be reseated, but who knows how long I would have gone with only 16GB before I noticed the problem? Since the RGB not only alerted me to the issue, but obviously indicated which module had the problem, I retract my prior opinion that RGB memory modules were frivolous nonsense. (RGB fans, on the other hand...)
Any good books/resources on soft skills? I suddenly found myself in a position in work where being a bit better at persuasion, negotiation and de-escalation would be much appreciated.
I'm finding it hard to find quality resources and easy to find crap.
I had a shower thought about what will happen to Western diets if meat (and only meat) suddenly increases in price, as has been predicted extensively. I haven’t been able to find examples of this happening to a society before and I was curious if it’s more likely we’ll expand the window of acceptable animals to eat, move to insect proteins, or move to mass vegetarianism? I haven’t been able to find much via Google, so I thought I’d reach out here.
I hate fake Tables of Contents. Most books have them. You know the ones, the book is divided into five chapters or so, and each chapter has many subsections that are not even listed in the Table of Contents, so when you want to find something again, you can't, or when you want to remind yourself of the general cut and thrust of the book, you can't do it near so well, because instead all you get from the TOC is a handful of scarcely meaningful chapter titles. It's as though you want to see the anatomy of the book, and the book just keeps repeating in a sing-song, "Head, Shoulders, Knees and Toes." And you reply, "Damn you, I want to see the whole skeleton!"
Do you ever have this experience?
I am thinking about solving it, but is there demand?
What are some books similar to Joseph Henrich's The WEIRDest People in the World? (In that they discuss the same/related issues, but from a different angle of some sort.) I ask because I've found Tyler Cowen's advice to read in clusters very useful, so I'd appreciate at least a couple more to round out a cluster including Henrich's book.
Two examples of possibilities here: The Open Society and its Enemies, by Karl Popper, and Fairness and Freedom, by David Hackett Fischer. The former is a work of philosophy criticizing, among other things, a thread of collectivism running through the works of Plato, Hegel, and Marx, as opposed to individualism, and the latter is a comparative history of the US and New Zealand considering their individualist/free market/liberal etc. roots. So they cover what seems like closely related conceptual ground in terms of Western individualism, but from different perspectives: Henrich discusses anthropology, Popper discusses philosophy, and Fischer discusses history. (Note, I've already read The Open Society.) Hopefully that illuminates what I meant about books that form a cluster. (They can also be books on the subject within the same discipline but with different intellectual loci.)
I've recently been watching Criminal Minds on Netflix, as I'm a sucker for police procedurals. It's a fun show, but I have to wonder, how legit is FBI profiling? Seems like one of those things that could easily just be all smoke and mirrors.
IIRC, most of the actual donors ended up not being Nobel laureates, because Nobels tend to be awarded for work from previous decades and thus to older recipients. (Also, hilariously, because customers complained that many of the Nobel laureates were too short.) So they ended up being younger, modestly accomplished all around the board types instead.
Color is mostly #aaa on #111, which is great on my monitor, but YMMV. Has an issue with the skeleton dummy posts that show up before content loads (I can't find their HTML, so they're still glaring white), but I'm not sure how annoying that will actually be. Seems to work otherwise. I'll try to keep this updated when site changes start breaking it, but feel free to fork/do whatever with it.
If all they have about you is something you wrote in college, and where the only issue was some miscommunication... I wouldn't worry too much. There are many worse people and stories. I hope the NYT doesn't publish, but if they do... Remember that in a few years it will just be a painful but distant memory.
That being said, I feel an urgent need for some way for new comments to be easy to find.
I've recommended having brains as well as hearts so that we can mark intellectually satisfying comments as well as just liking them. I don't have enough experience with assorted fora to have an opinion about rating systems. Part of my motivation is to get more nuanced ratings, but I also want to see those cute little brains to click on.
It might also be good (if feasible) to have an "I want to remember this" marker. For that matter, the want-to-remember marker could be part of a rating system. It might be more honest than mere likes.
Gee, several people responded to my comment, so I went here to reply, and I can't even find my comment! Even searching the page (either for my name or for a keyword I used) doesn't turn it up. Very disappointing.
I believe that the current comment structure may suit many Substack users fairly well, but that the SSC crowd needs more of a forum for conversation around the pieces: it would be nice if Substack could offer publishers the choice between forum-style and current style comments.
I feel like I very recently saw a paper/blog post/something arguing that the IAT could not, in principle, measure *implicit* bias because it requires the person taking the test to make *explicit* decisions about whatever social category is the focus of the test. Has anyone else seen this or similar arguments? If so, could you point me to it?
- And been looking at the wikipedia article on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxin-antitoxin_system , which serves to select for cells that inherit the antitoxin (as otherwise the toxin kills them). There's a few papers that it references that I may look over as well.
Seeing this new blog open prompted me to finally start reading Unsong, and it's great trippy fun! (I'm currently on the last couple chapters of Genesis.) I also keep catching myself trying to Kabbalistically analyze random names and words.
History is fun! More snippets from MacCulloch's book on the Reformation.
Got those pesky marital troubles? Pope won't cough up with an annulment? Never fear, the Reformers are here!
Philipp Melanchthon [big name German reformer if you didn't know https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Melanchthon] ...in 1531 he suggested to Henry VIII that he should solve the Aragon marriage impasse by getting the Pope to provide a dispensation for bigamy.
Uhhhh - thanks, Philipp, but *two* queens at the same time? Maybe not workable?
Henry wasn't the only one struggling with the problem of "I got this hot new squeeze who's demanding I put a ring on it, problem is I'm already tied with the old ball and chain, what do?"
"Against this background of attempted accommodations and adjustments, a moment of opportunity arose in 1540–1 that Charles V was determined to seize. He had a bizarre stroke of luck – a severe dent to the prestige of his most truculent Protestant opponent within the Empire, Philipp of Hesse, which also damaged the reputation of the leading German reformers. It was revealed that Philipp had recently committed bigamy, with the express if reluctant written agreement of Luther, Bucer [another Big Name in the German Reformation] and Melanchthon. Their action was the ultimate in Protestant wooing of the magistrate. The signatories’ logic (apart from the unspoken acknowledgement of how much they owed to Philipp) was that bigamy was better than the adultery which had characterized Philipp’s chaotic private life over the previous decade; Melanchthon and Bucer in particular were only being consistent with the advice about bigamy that they had offered Henry VIII a few years before. Nevertheless the evangelical theologians’ belief that both their action and the bigamous marriage could be kept secret was a colossally naive political misjudgement, bringing bringing predictable and gleeful expressions of moral outrage from their Catholic opponents. Charles graciously granted an imperial pardon to his prince, who could in theory have suffered the death penalty for bigamy as newly laid down in the 1532. imperial law code (Lex Carolina). Melanchthon was so shattered by the self-inflicted catastrophe that he became gravely ill."
Puts a new spin on the oft-cited cry from the Protestant side about Catholic dogma and practices: "Where's that in the Bible?" I had heard it as Luther and others were consulted about Philip's marital problems, couldn't find a prescript for divorce - or rather couldn't settle on recommending it as a solution - but there was the Scriptural precedent of the Patriarchs having two (or more) wives.
Philip seems to have been really keen on this as a solution, for what it's worth, because he intensely disliked his first wife, was constantly committing adultery, wanted to regularise the whole position so he could eat his cake and have it, and even had the second wife picked out ready to go before the theologians got a start on the question: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_I,_Landgrave_of_Hesse#Bigamous_marriage
On the one hand, it's good that Substack is willing to put in a lot of work to change to UI to fit what Scott wants. On the other hand, it seems concerning that they weren't already doing all these things. My impression is that most commenters' complaints about the UI are glaringly obvious, and any competent designer could have fixed them without needing to be told. Or, perhaps more accurately, they could have fixed them if they had been prioritizing user-friendliness rather than engagement / revenue. For example, it seems clear to me that having big "Subscribe" buttons everywhere is bad for users (but good for revenue), so a designer who prioritized user-friendliness wouldn't do it, and wouldn't need to be told to do it.
I'm not surprised to see what you said about eugenics here, as I've gleaned over the years that your stance is roughly that. But I hadn't seen you crystallize your position like that before. Do you expect to ever devote a whole post to eugenics?
I am looking to collect databases from real businesses and business-like entities, including those that have failed or otherwise become "past-tense". Read on if you or someone you know might have access to such things.
Background:
I'm a software engineer, specializing in data systems (i.e. a data engineer), with about 16 years in the industry under my belt. Something that's always frustrated me about the way that we design and build systems, is the way that knowledge fails to diffuse through the industry, because we don't _study_ what we do, and especially we don't study our failures.
As an example, the 2010s witnessed the full hype cycle (rise and fall) of "NoSQL" databases, such as MongoDB, Cassandra, DynamoDB, Riak, Aerospike, and many others. Did they turn out to be any good? Individually, in local circumstances, some engineers know the answer, or at least _an_ answer. Collectively, we have no idea. This knowledge only spreads as the primary sources write blog posts (mostly terrible), or move on to new jobs and tell stories (distorted by all sorts of biases). What we *should* be doing is studying what was actually built, out in the open, where everyone can see it if they're interested.
Additionally, I find it very difficult to teach other engineers about data systems, in a scalable way, without open example material. There are many online courses in SQL and things of that nature, but they always deal with trivially small, trivially clean data sets, without any of the richness or messiness of Real World Data. Many years ago, my own skill in dealing with data grew by leaps and bounds the instant I was exposed to real business data and asked to solve real business problems with it.
To these ends, I am looking to collect real business data sets. I use the term "business" loosely, in the same sense that engineers often say "business logic". Non-profits, community efforts, personal side projects, these things all count. The key thing I'm after are custom-built databases, meaning they either started from a blank MySQL/Postgres/MongoDB/etc, or heavily customized an off-the-shelf system like Wordpress or Salesforce.
I recognize there are thorny issues here with respect to intellectual property and personal data privacy. I do not expect anyone to just hand over a database and wish me well. We would have to work something out, whether that's an NDA, or thorough anonymization, or whatever.
In any event, if you possess a data set like this, and *might* be willing to share it for research purposes, please reply here and we can figure out how to connect and discuss.
Has anyone tried deradicalizing conspiracy theorists through betting? I'm thinking specifically of political conspiracy theorists, as they seem to have more testable predictions - eg X country will do Y action by Z date, X person will win Y election, X person will be in jail by Y date, etc, but anything conspiracy theory will do. It seems like losing money, especially repeatedly, would make the person have much stronger incentives to update their beliefs than they otherwise would have. The other upside is instead of being annoyed with your conspiracy theorist friends/families, you'd have an incentive to communicate with to them, so you can make money. Maintaining ties to people with sane worldviews is important for this sort of thing.
What do people think of the pros and cons of an easily recognizable ACX symbol? Something that readers of the blog could use to identify each other in public, that would be commercialized either by Scott, or open for anyone to do so. I ask because a means to easily identify fellow readers in public would make it easier to find like-minded people, but I can of course see that it might bring risks given the ambiguous reputation we hold in some circles. It's worth it to me, but I'm curious if the cost/benefit analysis is equally favorable in the eyes of others.
Regarding sign-ups for Scott's new psych practice: I suspect what many of those readers would like (as a second-best solution anyway) is a referral to a different physchiatrist who is taking new patients and who has similar attitudes and views about the nature of the doctor-patient relationship, meds, research, etc. to Scott's. If Scott were feeling quite charitable, he might create a separate form where people can request a referral. I suspect that would siphon off most of the people currently ignoring the instructions not to try to sign up as a new patient of his. (Sorry Scott: I have never commented here before and don't know whether to address this to you or to the group!)
My blog, Naval Gazing, originated in the SSC OTs, and before the shutdown I usually put up links to new posts in the whole-number OTs. There appears to be at least some interest in me continuing to do so, so I should probably start with an overview of what I've been up to.
First, I finished the long-running Falklands series, which ended up at 24 parts:
@scott, >I support it in the sense of improving people's genetics and genetic outcomes - long-term through genetic engineering, medium-term through having things like the Nobel sperm bank (but less badly done) available for people who want them, and short-term through voluntary community-based efforts like Dor Yeshorim.
> dictionary, definition. eugenics. the study of how to arrange reproduction within a human population to increase the occurrence of heritable characteristics regarded as desirable. Developed largely by Sir Francis Galton as a method of improving the human race, eugenics was increasingly discredited as unscientific and racially biased during the 20th century, especially after the adoption of its doctrines by the Nazis in order to justify their treatment of Jews, disabled people, and other minority groups.
I'd be keen to know, what exactly sets you apart from the above definition, I do get it, you are not Nazi, and you are not a racist either, but how exactly your opinion disagrees with the rest of the dictionary definition of the eugenics.
This is probably far too late to get any significant response, but I'll write out the post anyway to make rewriting it next OT easier.
I've been studying at a German technical university for a few years, and have been steadily confronting myself with the question: why wouldn't more American students follow a similar path?
I have to say, my confusion here has been pretty large, and I can't tell if it's due to:
-A unique situation that made it easy for me compared to the average American student.
-An American education (recommendation) system with a massive blind spot.
-A German visa system with a lack of interest in Americans.
The long and short of the steps that I took to get into this position is:
1. Learned German during an exchange year (not necessary, my university as well as perhaps 200 more German universities have Bachelors as well as Masters in English)
2. Applied for German universities (with a decent GPA/ACT/SAT [specific numbers on request], not much work is required. In fact, I found the 4 American universities I applied to much more difficult than the 10 or so German unis)
3. Was accepted to German universities.
4. Demonstrated a relatively reasonable level of financial stability (8,000€ in a bank account or a German family willing to vouch for you.)
5. Began attending the German university of my choice.
Current monthly costs, living in one of the 5 largest German cities, include:
*300-500€ (for me, just over 300€) rent in a shared flat, also studio apts (WiFi, electricity, heating, and water included).
*100€ food, relatively decadent with fresh vegetables, fruits, cheeses, and occasional meat.
*100€ stunningly inclusive health insurance.
*(You may be wondering, where's the university costs?)
*50€ University costs (this includes texts, computer labs, multiple student workshops, legal insurance, email, cloud service, and most of all, public transportation in the entire state + parts of other states)
*Around 10-50€ for a cell-phone plan. Figure this isn't too different from the states.
So if we're looking for the high-end of what I could pay, I come out with 800€ and 9600€ per month and per year, respectively. Throw one or two international flights home in there, for an extra 500-1500€, and I bump into 11k€. For my entire costs, from year one to year eight if I wanted to spend more time here.
Now, my comparisons to the US are based on anecdotes from friends, as well as a few websites with average cost estimations. Take this with a few grains of salt, but I seem to find $20k a year as a pretty common amount for in-state tuition and associated living costs, and $40k a year with a medium out-of-state tuition (plus living). This is either 100% more than what I'm paying, or 300% more. Not only that, the bachelor at my university (as well as all German universities) is a 3 year program, since GERs (general education requirements? Don't know my American university terms very well) aren't a part of the curriculum. So to get my bachelor, I'm spending 33k€ (to be fair, this is about $40k right now), whereas in-state public is spending $80k and out of state is spending $160k plus an extra year?
I'll assume most of you know someone, either around college age, raising children who will reach college age, or you're planning on having college graduates of your own some day. Reach out to them, let them know it's an option, and maybe save a year of their life and $100,000.
Or critique my comment and let me know exactly how I'm wrong. I welcome both.
Just a quick vote for "please no favourites". It'll just spoil the feeling of balance and make more standardised beliefs or ideas more visible while hiding the more interesting ones as people skip to the "Top Comments!!". It will create an echo-chamber-like atmosphere and kill discussion (like it did to metafilter.com) where those with differing opinions are accused of "not reading the room" - and thereafter silenced/shouted down by the majority.
It would be cool to be able to link posts without the comments, like was possible on the old blog. This is useful to send posts to people and have them be less scared about the size of the scroll bar.
Current known concerns about Substack comments (if you have more concerns, please post them as replies to this comment, one concern per reply; if you agree with someone else's concern, heart the comment):
1. Need to press "load more comments" to load more comments and "1 more reply" to see reply
2. Hearts need to be removed. SSC commentariat previously voted that likes/upvotes distort commenting behavior too much and they don't want them.
2a. People are concerned that you can't subscribe to comment replies without getting an email every time someone hearts it, but removing hearts should solve this.
3. Cannot currently edit comments.
4. Cannot currently report comments.
5. Cannot currently see which comments are new since last visit (as in old SSC where new comments would have a green square around them).
6. Cannot currently comment without it reloading the page, no easy way to get back to your old location.
7. Cannot currently without getting popup telling you to subscribe
8. Cannot currently link to some comments (link just goes to top of page)
I've been getting into photography lately and I like sidequests so if anyone wants a high resolution, debatably high quality photo of anything within a reasonable radius of Madison, Wisconsin, @ me with your request.
General-Purpose Robots https://howthehell.substack.com/p/general-purpose-robots
If your situation gets any more odd, it might turn out that there is an enormous demand for you to refer prospective patients and psychiatrists to each other, and that this takes up so much time and is so lucrative, that it shifts the entire business model of your practice. What a world.
[I hope this doesn't count as politics.]
I read the Cult of Smart a month or so ago. I know a lot of people here have read it too. Overall I wasn't impressed with the conclusions of the book. But I can't get over the premise: intelligence is mostly inherited and school won't likely increase your IQ.
That model of the world -- where a significant amount of your intelligence comes from your parents; and there is a meritocracy; and there is some sort of self-sorting -- is a different model than the world I am used to. It really makes a lot of policies obsolete.
It kinda scares me to think about how we could govern in that world. All the same, if that is reality, I'm not sure it makes sense to ignore it.
I would like to contribute, but feel that the current subscription price is a bit higher than my willingness to pay. I would gladly pay the discounted price, but definitely do not qualify for it. Is there some other way to contribute? (I understand it's a trade-off - if you make it easier for people like me to contribute, you may get less from people who would otherwise contribute the full amount under the current setup).
I just want to recommend the (probably soon to be renamed) SSC podcast for anyone who prefers listening over reading.
https://sscpodcast.libsyn.com/
It’s been a disappointing winter. I’ve been looking forward to some solid sheets of snow but mostly we’ve been met with sparse paddings of sludge and ice. I’m hoping for one last good snowfall before things get warm again, or for the snow to be done completely as the dreary grey and green isn’t doing it for me.
Minor heads up: by default, gmail was filtering the Astral Codex Ten substack emails under promotions. I found out by accident - I'm not sure if any keyword accidentally triggered it.
I don't like the hearts.
Well, it's good to be back, y'all. Though it'll never be quite the same.
What's the most interesting thing you've done due to quarantine, all?
Is your characterization of your column and apology as "badly" and "bad job" intended to mean that you believe it was possible to do those things in a way that did not produce the negative responses that you go? I often encounter that sort of thinking in places I am relatively certain it is not accurate, but I can't tell in the context of this post. Saying/thinking these things when there was no less-bad approach available leads to faulty conclusions, in my experience.
This is of course a matter of taste, but I generally preferred the aesthetic of the previous blog. I don't know how much control you have with Substack, but experimenting with different fonts and formatting options might be worthwhile.
I assume an analysis is planed but I have to ask - what's up with the results of last year's nootropics survey?
Hopefully this does not breach the 'no-politics' nature of this thread but... Has anyone read "Cynical Theories: How Activist Scholarship Made Evyerhting about Race, Gender, and Identity..."? Does anyone have any opinions on how it treats the subject of Postmodernism? Does it get at the crux of it? I am only a few chapters in, but I am recalling that Jordan Peterson was rightly pilloried for his lack of nuance in understanding Postmodernism. These authors, however, seem to have done their homework. So far, it's an excellent, balanced book.
So what should we call this blog? Obvious candidates that I've seen around are ACX and ACT. I strongly prefer ACX for some reason. Or will folks just stick with SSC?
1) Has anyone else had issues with the RSS feed? I didn't get a notification for this post despite subscribing.
2) There's a lot of talk over which cities are most livable by various metrics - housing supply, jobs, transit/pedestrian friendliness. I'm curious about anecdotal subjective experience - people who have lived in multiple cities, which one was your favourite overall? (And I mean including every factor - e.g. "NYC was dirty and badly run but I liked it overall because I had an interesting highly-paid job" should still count, since job market is somewhat location-dependant).
who else is here???
Socialization subthread!
With the new blog having just launched there are probably a lot of new and returning readers and commenters that just want to say hi or introduce themselves. I’ll start.
I found SSC a bit over two years ago and binged the archives like mad. I had come across overcoming bias back in 2009 and read those archives up to that point but didn’t really stick around or engage with the community. I just lurked on Scott’s blog as well, but I have really missed it since it has been down and now that it is back I want to engage more; So Hello everyone!
I will avoid mentioning who I work for to preserve anonymity, but I am an aerospace engineer specializing in rocket propulsion and will be happy to comment on or answer questions regarding rocketry technology or space exploration. Other intellectual interests include history, and psychology especially as it relates to leadership and management.
Matt Levine’s posts have made me want to invest in a SPAC upfront (i.e. for $10 with the warrant). Is this one of those things where you have to be a VHNWI and have a relationship with a bank?
Glad that the blog is back! I'm gonna make immediate use of it by asking this: I'm starting a PhD in Psychology in the Netherlands. My PhD friends have told me Twitter is essential for keeping up with relevant publications, events, trends and development and that I should absolutely make an account.
A) What does everyone think about this assessment and B) if I do make a Twitter account, what are good ways to filter out all of the bullshit?
Does anyone have a good explainer of post-rationalism (aka. postrat) and how it differs from the standard LessWrong fare?
Irrelevant suggestion - bring back the punny titles for open threads. They brought some levity and variety and I don't think the stated reason for getting rid of them (too confusing for newbies) ever made that much sense.
I'm not just saying this because you never got around to Openguin Thread... okay I kinda am.
What I am really looking for is the weekly links section, miss so much.
Health question: this last year, unexplained and unplanned I've lost about 30 pounds of weight, and about five inches off my waist and I now have to use suspenders to hold my pants up,
Has this happened to anyone else?
Unfortunately in this time of covid-19 speaking to a physician or nurse practitioner is really hard, I called for six months with lung symptoms before finally being seen, an x-ray and my weight loss prompted my doctor to say "80% lung cancer", but a biopsy found a fungal infection instead. I'm guessing at least a year until pre-2020 style medical care is available again, weight loss remains a mystery.
Was Givewell correct to list KIPP (a prominent charter school network) as its recommended charity for US givers? https://blog.givewell.org/2012/03/14/kipp-houston-update/
Reasons to think it might have been wrong:
* There was even at the time a lot of government and institutional support for prominent charter networks
* Closer investigation into what's going on in those schools should have made it clearer that they were focused on test prep in a way that wouldn't lead to sustainable long-term benefits (KIPP has had a hard time showing increased college enrollment and graduation, though I think after changing to focus on that they now have a modest impact on that)
* Research was very limited at the time on impact of no excuses charters
I'm having a hard time separating disturbing things I've heard from people who have done stints at KIPP (and Success Academy etc) from what was understood in 2011. I think this should be seen as a failure of Effective Altruism/Givewell but I'm interested in defenses.
Was KIPP really the best place to give money in the US in 2011?
Anyone here using a branch of Chromium for privacy reasons? I'd be curious to hear about your experience and configuration.
Scott's difficulties setting up his psychiatry practice remind me of Paul Morphy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Morphy) who, after becoming widely recognized as the world chess champion at 21, retired from competitive play to open a law practice. His law practice failed because everyone who came to him just wanted to talk about chess. Scott, the widely recognized world blogging champion, may be facing a similar predicament.
Now that my living room no longer looks like I've been fighting Terminators, I am happy to report that I have found a practical use for RGB lighting! To my utter shock, my new PC rig booted on the first try, but one of my memory modules didn't light up. What do you know, Windows is only detecting one module. Fortunately, it just needed to be reseated, but who knows how long I would have gone with only 16GB before I noticed the problem? Since the RGB not only alerted me to the issue, but obviously indicated which module had the problem, I retract my prior opinion that RGB memory modules were frivolous nonsense. (RGB fans, on the other hand...)
Any good books/resources on soft skills? I suddenly found myself in a position in work where being a bit better at persuasion, negotiation and de-escalation would be much appreciated.
I'm finding it hard to find quality resources and easy to find crap.
I had a shower thought about what will happen to Western diets if meat (and only meat) suddenly increases in price, as has been predicted extensively. I haven’t been able to find examples of this happening to a society before and I was curious if it’s more likely we’ll expand the window of acceptable animals to eat, move to insect proteins, or move to mass vegetarianism? I haven’t been able to find much via Google, so I thought I’d reach out here.
You should auction off ten "fan slots" for your psych practice to the highest bidder and see how much they go for. I bet a lot.
I hate fake Tables of Contents. Most books have them. You know the ones, the book is divided into five chapters or so, and each chapter has many subsections that are not even listed in the Table of Contents, so when you want to find something again, you can't, or when you want to remind yourself of the general cut and thrust of the book, you can't do it near so well, because instead all you get from the TOC is a handful of scarcely meaningful chapter titles. It's as though you want to see the anatomy of the book, and the book just keeps repeating in a sing-song, "Head, Shoulders, Knees and Toes." And you reply, "Damn you, I want to see the whole skeleton!"
Do you ever have this experience?
I am thinking about solving it, but is there demand?
What are some books similar to Joseph Henrich's The WEIRDest People in the World? (In that they discuss the same/related issues, but from a different angle of some sort.) I ask because I've found Tyler Cowen's advice to read in clusters very useful, so I'd appreciate at least a couple more to round out a cluster including Henrich's book.
Two examples of possibilities here: The Open Society and its Enemies, by Karl Popper, and Fairness and Freedom, by David Hackett Fischer. The former is a work of philosophy criticizing, among other things, a thread of collectivism running through the works of Plato, Hegel, and Marx, as opposed to individualism, and the latter is a comparative history of the US and New Zealand considering their individualist/free market/liberal etc. roots. So they cover what seems like closely related conceptual ground in terms of Western individualism, but from different perspectives: Henrich discusses anthropology, Popper discusses philosophy, and Fischer discusses history. (Note, I've already read The Open Society.) Hopefully that illuminates what I meant about books that form a cluster. (They can also be books on the subject within the same discipline but with different intellectual loci.)
It's good to be back, everyone.
I've recently been watching Criminal Minds on Netflix, as I'm a sucker for police procedurals. It's a fun show, but I have to wonder, how legit is FBI profiling? Seems like one of those things that could easily just be all smoke and mirrors.
Wow. Good to have an OT again.
Is there any interest in me continuing to do Naval Gazing links as I was doing back before SSC shut down, or should I just not bother?
Regarding the Nobel Prize sperm bank, I highly recommend David Plotz's book The Genius Factory to anyone who is interested in learning more: https://www.amazon.com/Genius-Factory-Curious-History-Nobel-ebook/dp/B000FCK5WG/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=
IIRC, most of the actual donors ended up not being Nobel laureates, because Nobels tend to be awarded for work from previous decades and thus to older recipients. (Also, hilariously, because customers complained that many of the Nobel laureates were too short.) So they ended up being younger, modestly accomplished all around the board types instead.
1) Why rename the blog when moving to substack?
2) What does the new name, Astral Codex Ten, mean?
I made a quick dark theme for SSC (err, ACT. ACX? The new blog). It's at https://userstyles.org/styles/196568/arcane-old-texts
Color is mostly #aaa on #111, which is great on my monitor, but YMMV. Has an issue with the skeleton dummy posts that show up before content loads (I can't find their HTML, so they're still glaring white), but I'm not sure how annoying that will actually be. Seems to work otherwise. I'll try to keep this updated when site changes start breaking it, but feel free to fork/do whatever with it.
(Remember to use Stylus, not Stylish, to install themes: https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/stylus/clngdbkpkpeebahjckkjfobafhncgmne?hl=en )
If all they have about you is something you wrote in college, and where the only issue was some miscommunication... I wouldn't worry too much. There are many worse people and stories. I hope the NYT doesn't publish, but if they do... Remember that in a few years it will just be a painful but distant memory.
It's great to be back!
That being said, I feel an urgent need for some way for new comments to be easy to find.
I've recommended having brains as well as hearts so that we can mark intellectually satisfying comments as well as just liking them. I don't have enough experience with assorted fora to have an opinion about rating systems. Part of my motivation is to get more nuanced ratings, but I also want to see those cute little brains to click on.
It might also be good (if feasible) to have an "I want to remember this" marker. For that matter, the want-to-remember marker could be part of a rating system. It might be more honest than mere likes.
Gee, several people responded to my comment, so I went here to reply, and I can't even find my comment! Even searching the page (either for my name or for a keyword I used) doesn't turn it up. Very disappointing.
I believe that the current comment structure may suit many Substack users fairly well, but that the SSC crowd needs more of a forum for conversation around the pieces: it would be nice if Substack could offer publishers the choice between forum-style and current style comments.
I feel like I very recently saw a paper/blog post/something arguing that the IAT could not, in principle, measure *implicit* bias because it requires the person taking the test to make *explicit* decisions about whatever social category is the focus of the test. Has anyone else seen this or similar arguments? If so, could you point me to it?
So, any interesting Biology (whether it be evolutionary, synthetic, systems, medicine, and so on) papers/articles that anyone has enjoyed recently?
Recently been looking over:
- "An antiviral self-replicating molecular heterotroph" https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.12.248997v1
- And been looking at the wikipedia article on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxin-antitoxin_system , which serves to select for cells that inherit the antitoxin (as otherwise the toxin kills them). There's a few papers that it references that I may look over as well.
Seeing this new blog open prompted me to finally start reading Unsong, and it's great trippy fun! (I'm currently on the last couple chapters of Genesis.) I also keep catching myself trying to Kabbalistically analyze random names and words.
History is fun! More snippets from MacCulloch's book on the Reformation.
Got those pesky marital troubles? Pope won't cough up with an annulment? Never fear, the Reformers are here!
Philipp Melanchthon [big name German reformer if you didn't know https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Melanchthon] ...in 1531 he suggested to Henry VIII that he should solve the Aragon marriage impasse by getting the Pope to provide a dispensation for bigamy.
Uhhhh - thanks, Philipp, but *two* queens at the same time? Maybe not workable?
Henry wasn't the only one struggling with the problem of "I got this hot new squeeze who's demanding I put a ring on it, problem is I'm already tied with the old ball and chain, what do?"
"Against this background of attempted accommodations and adjustments, a moment of opportunity arose in 1540–1 that Charles V was determined to seize. He had a bizarre stroke of luck – a severe dent to the prestige of his most truculent Protestant opponent within the Empire, Philipp of Hesse, which also damaged the reputation of the leading German reformers. It was revealed that Philipp had recently committed bigamy, with the express if reluctant written agreement of Luther, Bucer [another Big Name in the German Reformation] and Melanchthon. Their action was the ultimate in Protestant wooing of the magistrate. The signatories’ logic (apart from the unspoken acknowledgement of how much they owed to Philipp) was that bigamy was better than the adultery which had characterized Philipp’s chaotic private life over the previous decade; Melanchthon and Bucer in particular were only being consistent with the advice about bigamy that they had offered Henry VIII a few years before. Nevertheless the evangelical theologians’ belief that both their action and the bigamous marriage could be kept secret was a colossally naive political misjudgement, bringing bringing predictable and gleeful expressions of moral outrage from their Catholic opponents. Charles graciously granted an imperial pardon to his prince, who could in theory have suffered the death penalty for bigamy as newly laid down in the 1532. imperial law code (Lex Carolina). Melanchthon was so shattered by the self-inflicted catastrophe that he became gravely ill."
Puts a new spin on the oft-cited cry from the Protestant side about Catholic dogma and practices: "Where's that in the Bible?" I had heard it as Luther and others were consulted about Philip's marital problems, couldn't find a prescript for divorce - or rather couldn't settle on recommending it as a solution - but there was the Scriptural precedent of the Patriarchs having two (or more) wives.
Philip seems to have been really keen on this as a solution, for what it's worth, because he intensely disliked his first wife, was constantly committing adultery, wanted to regularise the whole position so he could eat his cake and have it, and even had the second wife picked out ready to go before the theologians got a start on the question: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_I,_Landgrave_of_Hesse#Bigamous_marriage
On the one hand, it's good that Substack is willing to put in a lot of work to change to UI to fit what Scott wants. On the other hand, it seems concerning that they weren't already doing all these things. My impression is that most commenters' complaints about the UI are glaringly obvious, and any competent designer could have fixed them without needing to be told. Or, perhaps more accurately, they could have fixed them if they had been prioritizing user-friendliness rather than engagement / revenue. For example, it seems clear to me that having big "Subscribe" buttons everywhere is bad for users (but good for revenue), so a designer who prioritized user-friendliness wouldn't do it, and wouldn't need to be told to do it.
I'm not surprised to see what you said about eugenics here, as I've gleaned over the years that your stance is roughly that. But I hadn't seen you crystallize your position like that before. Do you expect to ever devote a whole post to eugenics?
Hello ACX commenters,
I am looking to collect databases from real businesses and business-like entities, including those that have failed or otherwise become "past-tense". Read on if you or someone you know might have access to such things.
Background:
I'm a software engineer, specializing in data systems (i.e. a data engineer), with about 16 years in the industry under my belt. Something that's always frustrated me about the way that we design and build systems, is the way that knowledge fails to diffuse through the industry, because we don't _study_ what we do, and especially we don't study our failures.
As an example, the 2010s witnessed the full hype cycle (rise and fall) of "NoSQL" databases, such as MongoDB, Cassandra, DynamoDB, Riak, Aerospike, and many others. Did they turn out to be any good? Individually, in local circumstances, some engineers know the answer, or at least _an_ answer. Collectively, we have no idea. This knowledge only spreads as the primary sources write blog posts (mostly terrible), or move on to new jobs and tell stories (distorted by all sorts of biases). What we *should* be doing is studying what was actually built, out in the open, where everyone can see it if they're interested.
Additionally, I find it very difficult to teach other engineers about data systems, in a scalable way, without open example material. There are many online courses in SQL and things of that nature, but they always deal with trivially small, trivially clean data sets, without any of the richness or messiness of Real World Data. Many years ago, my own skill in dealing with data grew by leaps and bounds the instant I was exposed to real business data and asked to solve real business problems with it.
To these ends, I am looking to collect real business data sets. I use the term "business" loosely, in the same sense that engineers often say "business logic". Non-profits, community efforts, personal side projects, these things all count. The key thing I'm after are custom-built databases, meaning they either started from a blank MySQL/Postgres/MongoDB/etc, or heavily customized an off-the-shelf system like Wordpress or Salesforce.
I recognize there are thorny issues here with respect to intellectual property and personal data privacy. I do not expect anyone to just hand over a database and wish me well. We would have to work something out, whether that's an NDA, or thorough anonymization, or whatever.
In any event, if you possess a data set like this, and *might* be willing to share it for research purposes, please reply here and we can figure out how to connect and discuss.
Has anyone tried deradicalizing conspiracy theorists through betting? I'm thinking specifically of political conspiracy theorists, as they seem to have more testable predictions - eg X country will do Y action by Z date, X person will win Y election, X person will be in jail by Y date, etc, but anything conspiracy theory will do. It seems like losing money, especially repeatedly, would make the person have much stronger incentives to update their beliefs than they otherwise would have. The other upside is instead of being annoyed with your conspiracy theorist friends/families, you'd have an incentive to communicate with to them, so you can make money. Maintaining ties to people with sane worldviews is important for this sort of thing.
What do people think of the pros and cons of an easily recognizable ACX symbol? Something that readers of the blog could use to identify each other in public, that would be commercialized either by Scott, or open for anyone to do so. I ask because a means to easily identify fellow readers in public would make it easier to find like-minded people, but I can of course see that it might bring risks given the ambiguous reputation we hold in some circles. It's worth it to me, but I'm curious if the cost/benefit analysis is equally favorable in the eyes of others.
Regarding sign-ups for Scott's new psych practice: I suspect what many of those readers would like (as a second-best solution anyway) is a referral to a different physchiatrist who is taking new patients and who has similar attitudes and views about the nature of the doctor-patient relationship, meds, research, etc. to Scott's. If Scott were feeling quite charitable, he might create a separate form where people can request a referral. I suspect that would siphon off most of the people currently ignoring the instructions not to try to sign up as a new patient of his. (Sorry Scott: I have never commented here before and don't know whether to address this to you or to the group!)
My blog, Naval Gazing, originated in the SSC OTs, and before the shutdown I usually put up links to new posts in the whole-number OTs. There appears to be at least some interest in me continuing to do so, so I should probably start with an overview of what I've been up to.
First, I finished the long-running Falklands series, which ended up at 24 parts:
https://www.navalgazing.net/Naval-Gazing-Index#FalklandsHistory
Second, I've written a lot on nuclear weapons at sea, including some truly bizarre plans on various sides of the Cold War:
https://www.navalgazing.net/Tags/Nuclear
Third, I just wrapped up a series on merchant ships:
https://www.navalgazing.net/Merchant-Ships-Introduction
There's also been a fair bit of slightly random stuff that might be of interest:
https://www.navalgazing.net/Naval-Rations-Part-3
https://www.navalgazing.net/Territorial-and-International-Waters
https://www.navalgazing.net/Naval-Bases-from-Space-Hampton-Roads
https://www.navalgazing.net/The-Reagan-Maritime-Strategy
https://www.navalgazing.net/The-Seaplane-Striking-Force
https://www.navalgazing.net/Merchant-Ships-Whaling
https://www.navalgazing.net/Naval-Airships-Part-1
https://www.navalgazing.net/The-Battleship-and-the-Carrier
@scott, >I support it in the sense of improving people's genetics and genetic outcomes - long-term through genetic engineering, medium-term through having things like the Nobel sperm bank (but less badly done) available for people who want them, and short-term through voluntary community-based efforts like Dor Yeshorim.
> dictionary, definition. eugenics. the study of how to arrange reproduction within a human population to increase the occurrence of heritable characteristics regarded as desirable. Developed largely by Sir Francis Galton as a method of improving the human race, eugenics was increasingly discredited as unscientific and racially biased during the 20th century, especially after the adoption of its doctrines by the Nazis in order to justify their treatment of Jews, disabled people, and other minority groups.
I'd be keen to know, what exactly sets you apart from the above definition, I do get it, you are not Nazi, and you are not a racist either, but how exactly your opinion disagrees with the rest of the dictionary definition of the eugenics.
Is there a plan to copy all SSC content, including comments, into ACX, or else to return the styling to SSC?
This review article got big attention in Finnish media, but also faced heavy criticism from other researchers:
"Bipolar disorder: An evolutionary psychoneuroimmunological approach"
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33421542/
This is probably far too late to get any significant response, but I'll write out the post anyway to make rewriting it next OT easier.
I've been studying at a German technical university for a few years, and have been steadily confronting myself with the question: why wouldn't more American students follow a similar path?
I have to say, my confusion here has been pretty large, and I can't tell if it's due to:
-A unique situation that made it easy for me compared to the average American student.
-An American education (recommendation) system with a massive blind spot.
-A German visa system with a lack of interest in Americans.
The long and short of the steps that I took to get into this position is:
1. Learned German during an exchange year (not necessary, my university as well as perhaps 200 more German universities have Bachelors as well as Masters in English)
2. Applied for German universities (with a decent GPA/ACT/SAT [specific numbers on request], not much work is required. In fact, I found the 4 American universities I applied to much more difficult than the 10 or so German unis)
3. Was accepted to German universities.
4. Demonstrated a relatively reasonable level of financial stability (8,000€ in a bank account or a German family willing to vouch for you.)
5. Began attending the German university of my choice.
Current monthly costs, living in one of the 5 largest German cities, include:
*300-500€ (for me, just over 300€) rent in a shared flat, also studio apts (WiFi, electricity, heating, and water included).
*100€ food, relatively decadent with fresh vegetables, fruits, cheeses, and occasional meat.
*100€ stunningly inclusive health insurance.
*(You may be wondering, where's the university costs?)
*50€ University costs (this includes texts, computer labs, multiple student workshops, legal insurance, email, cloud service, and most of all, public transportation in the entire state + parts of other states)
*Around 10-50€ for a cell-phone plan. Figure this isn't too different from the states.
So if we're looking for the high-end of what I could pay, I come out with 800€ and 9600€ per month and per year, respectively. Throw one or two international flights home in there, for an extra 500-1500€, and I bump into 11k€. For my entire costs, from year one to year eight if I wanted to spend more time here.
Now, my comparisons to the US are based on anecdotes from friends, as well as a few websites with average cost estimations. Take this with a few grains of salt, but I seem to find $20k a year as a pretty common amount for in-state tuition and associated living costs, and $40k a year with a medium out-of-state tuition (plus living). This is either 100% more than what I'm paying, or 300% more. Not only that, the bachelor at my university (as well as all German universities) is a 3 year program, since GERs (general education requirements? Don't know my American university terms very well) aren't a part of the curriculum. So to get my bachelor, I'm spending 33k€ (to be fair, this is about $40k right now), whereas in-state public is spending $80k and out of state is spending $160k plus an extra year?
I'll assume most of you know someone, either around college age, raising children who will reach college age, or you're planning on having college graduates of your own some day. Reach out to them, let them know it's an option, and maybe save a year of their life and $100,000.
Or critique my comment and let me know exactly how I'm wrong. I welcome both.
Just a quick vote for "please no favourites". It'll just spoil the feeling of balance and make more standardised beliefs or ideas more visible while hiding the more interesting ones as people skip to the "Top Comments!!". It will create an echo-chamber-like atmosphere and kill discussion (like it did to metafilter.com) where those with differing opinions are accused of "not reading the room" - and thereafter silenced/shouted down by the majority.
Maybe an issue for substack in general, but the public RSS feed contains stuff that's supposed to be hidden: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/feed
It would be cool to be able to link posts without the comments, like was possible on the old blog. This is useful to send posts to people and have them be less scared about the size of the scroll bar.